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Note: Session titles beginning with an asterisk (*) have student presenters.
AUTHORS: Adam Terando, U.S. Geological Survey; John Kupfer, University of South Carolina; Peng Gao, University of South Carolina; Derek Van Berkel, Environmental Protection Agency; Nathan Tarr, North Carolina State University; Jennifer Costanza, North Carolina State University
ABSTRACT: The Southeast is experiencing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change that are transforming the pattern and connectivity of wildlife habitat. Such changes are taking place at a time when much of the region is also expected to experience significant climatic change. The recognition that conservation actions in the Southeast must be carried out in the context of a rapidly changing landscape is central to the scenario planning and modeling efforts associated with the Vital Futures Project and SECAS. Here, we begin by framing the discussion in terms of the dominant global change forcings that either directly or indirectly affect species, ecosystems, and habitats, and our ability to manage them. We provide an overview of projected future climate change and landscape transformation, including assessments of the various drivers of such changes across the region (e.g., urbanization, bioenergy development, large-scale agricultural development). In doing so, we will discuss methods used to arrive at not only future projections, but the expected speed of these changes across different habitats and physiographic settings (i.e. the expected climate and landscape velocity). To demonstrate the potential implications of such changes, we present preliminary analyses of the effects of these global change forcings on management of longleaf pine habitat through changing prescribed burn windows, which could face a squeeze as favorable meteorological conditions to conduct burning become less frequent at the same time as expanding urban landscapes increase the potential for conflicts along the wildland urban interface.