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Note: Session titles beginning with an asterisk (*) have student presenters.
AUTHORS: Sean M. Murphy, Department of Forestry, University of Kentucky; John J. Cox,Department of Forestry, University of Kentucky; John T. Hast, Kentucky Department of Fish & Wildlife Resources; Ben C. Augustine, Department of Forestry, University of Kentucky; Jayson H. Plaxico, Kentucky Department of Fish & Wildlife Resources; Tristan M. Curry, Kentucky Department of Fish & Wildlife Resources; Michael Strunk, Kentucky Department of Fish & Wildlife Resources
ABSTRACT: During the 1990s, two American black bear (Ursus americanus) reintroductions using small founder groups (n = 27 and 55 bears) occurred along the Kentucky-Virginia and Kentucky-Tennessee borders, which established two allopatric, relatively small populations by 2012 (N = 482 and 228 bears, respectively). We captured and radio-monitored 91 (36M:55F) total bears within those populations to estimate population-specific vital rates during 2010–2014, and developed individual-based population viability models to evaluate reintroduction success and harvest sustainability. Adult female annual survival was high (S = 0.93–0.99) and litter sizes were moderate ("x" ̅ = 2.17–2.39 cubs). All mortality was anthropogenic and additive; harvest and euthanasia of conflict bears were the most probable causes (PMortality = 0.28–0.33). Average annual population growth during 2010–2014 was high in both populations (λ = 1.08–1.14/year), and late autumn harvests were sustainable. However, the addition of early autumn harvests during 2015–2016, which increased the average annual observed mortality >350%, resulted in high probabilities of ≥25% population decline within 10 years (PDecline = 0.53–0.98). Sensitivity analysis indicated increased female bear mortality that occurred as a consequence of the 2015–2016 early autumn harvests was the primary cause of decline. Although our findings demonstrate short-term reintroduction success in both populations, recent harvest changes could cause precipitous population declines; therefore, temporary discontinuation of early autumn harvests should be considered. We also suggest vital rate monitoring be re-implemented to improve parameter estimate precision, quantify temporal process variance, and detect declines in these relatively small populations.
Tuesday October 31, 2017 11:20am - 11:40am EDT
Carroll Ford